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Have the UK Conservatives lost the working majority and if so, what does this mean?

Equivalent to government shutdown in parliamentary systemsWould the Spanish People's Party have the capacity to veto Scotland's entry to the EU while governing in minority?In a Westminster system, why would the PM voluntarily dissolve a majority government?Does the pre-election UK government have the authority to start Brexit talks before a new government is formed?Do Opposition amendments to the Queen's Speech amount to no-confidence motions?What can UK citizens do to replace first past the post with a proportional representation voting system?What does it mean to ask for a parliament to sit in private?What are the main differences between UK and US (NEP) exit polls, methodologically?The DUP have threatened to “vote down the budget” - but what does this mean?Would a Government who lose the confidence of the House really delay an election until after the event over which that confidence was lost transpires?

10

The Conservatives in the UK are in a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP in order to have a working majority in Parliament.

Yesterday, three Conservatives left the party to become independent, which means that they have 314 + 10 DUP, which is 324 out of 650.

Does this mean that they have lost the working majority and what does it mean if they have? Or is there any impact if/when they do?

The Government has a page showing current parliamentary breakdown.

united-kingdom parliament

share|improve this question

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

add a comment | 

10

The Conservatives in the UK are in a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP in order to have a working majority in Parliament.

Yesterday, three Conservatives left the party to become independent, which means that they have 314 + 10 DUP, which is 324 out of 650.

Does this mean that they have lost the working majority and what does it mean if they have? Or is there any impact if/when they do?

The Government has a page showing current parliamentary breakdown.

united-kingdom parliament

share|improve this question

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

add a comment | 

The Conservatives in the UK are in a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP in order to have a working majority in Parliament.

Yesterday, three Conservatives left the party to become independent, which means that they have 314 + 10 DUP, which is 324 out of 650.

Does this mean that they have lost the working majority and what does it mean if they have? Or is there any impact if/when they do?

The Government has a page showing current parliamentary breakdown.

united-kingdom parliament

share|improve this question

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

share|improve this question

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

share|improve this question

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

edited 27 mins ago

David Richerby

1,701819

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

New contributor

David is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.

asked 3 hours ago

DavidDavid

1537

2 Answers
2

active

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9

Not yet. Because Sinn Fein hold 7 seats, but they refuse to take their seats in the House of Commons. By tradition, the Speaker of the house doesn't vote.So in practice there are 642 votes in the Commons. That means that 322 votes are needed for a working majority in practice, which the government still has (with the DUP's support).

At the time of writing the seat of Newport West is vacant after the recent death of the MP Paul Flynn (Labour) on 17th Feb 2019; he has been MP for that seat since 1987, so it can be regarded as a reasonably safe Labour seat in the upcoming by-election. This lowers the majority threshold to 321 seats until the vacant seat is filled.

There is no immediate impact if they do fall below that threshold though. The only way it matters is if the government loses a vote of no confidence. It is not certain that the ex -Tory members who have joined The Independent Group would all necessarily vote against the government in a no confidence motion.

share|improve this answer

edited 2 hours ago

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  As of right now there are actually 641 votes - the Speaker of the House of Commons can't normally vote except in a tie-break situation, and the MP for Newport West died four days ago and his seat his current vacant. Even if the Sinn Fein MPs took their seats, you'd currently have an even split, and the Speaker is a former Conservative and so would cast his vote in their favour.
  
  – F1Krazy
  2 hours ago
  
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  @F1Krazy Good point about the speaker - I'll edit that in
  
  – PhillS
  2 hours ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  If we’re accounting for the Speaker, we need also to count the Deputy Speakers (one Conservative, two Labour) who also don’t vote. And no, it’s not a coincidence that the party makeup of the Deputy Speakers, combined with the Speaker (who used to be a Conservative) cancels out any Government/Opposition imbalance.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  So I make it 638 voting Members, currently, with the threshold for a majority therefore being 320. But also Eleanor Laing, as a Deputy Speaker (technically First Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means) needing to be taken off any count of the (effective) number of Conservative MPs.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  For the time being the number of MPs able to vote is reduced by one more - Fiona Onasanya is unable to vote whilst she is in prison
  
  – stuart10
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  

 | 
show 3 more comments

0

At the time of writing, the state of the parties (alt source)as it affects this calculation is:

• Conservative: 314


• DUP: 10


• Labour: 247


• Sinn Fein: 7


• The Speaker: 1


• Vacant: 1


• Everyone else: 70


• TOTAL: 650

However, the 3 Deputy Speakers - of whom 1 is Conservative and 2 are Labour - don't vote. Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so are also unable to vote. With the speaker and one vacancy, this reduces the number of voting MPs to 638.

This makes the number of votes required for a majority to be half of this plus one, i.e. 320.

The Government are in a confidence & supply agreement with the DUP, so in the event of another confidence vote, the number of Government votes available is 314 (Con MPs) - 1 (Deputy Speaker) + 10 (DUP MPs) = 323.

The number of Opposition votes available is 247 (Lab MPs) - 2 (Deputy Speakers) + 70 (everyone else, apart from Sinn Fein) = 315.

Hence the Government, in theory, have a majority of 8.

However, for non-confidence & supply votes, these numbers change to 313 and 325, leaving the Government short by 12 votes. And indeed, they have lost a number of votes recently - not merely because of these numbers, but also because, on Brexit issues, a number of Conservative MPs have not voted with the Government.

share|improve this answer

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

add a comment | 

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9

Not yet. Because Sinn Fein hold 7 seats, but they refuse to take their seats in the House of Commons. By tradition, the Speaker of the house doesn't vote.So in practice there are 642 votes in the Commons. That means that 322 votes are needed for a working majority in practice, which the government still has (with the DUP's support).

At the time of writing the seat of Newport West is vacant after the recent death of the MP Paul Flynn (Labour) on 17th Feb 2019; he has been MP for that seat since 1987, so it can be regarded as a reasonably safe Labour seat in the upcoming by-election. This lowers the majority threshold to 321 seats until the vacant seat is filled.

There is no immediate impact if they do fall below that threshold though. The only way it matters is if the government loses a vote of no confidence. It is not certain that the ex -Tory members who have joined The Independent Group would all necessarily vote against the government in a no confidence motion.

share|improve this answer

edited 2 hours ago

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  As of right now there are actually 641 votes - the Speaker of the House of Commons can't normally vote except in a tie-break situation, and the MP for Newport West died four days ago and his seat his current vacant. Even if the Sinn Fein MPs took their seats, you'd currently have an even split, and the Speaker is a former Conservative and so would cast his vote in their favour.
  
  – F1Krazy
  2 hours ago
  
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  @F1Krazy Good point about the speaker - I'll edit that in
  
  – PhillS
  2 hours ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  If we’re accounting for the Speaker, we need also to count the Deputy Speakers (one Conservative, two Labour) who also don’t vote. And no, it’s not a coincidence that the party makeup of the Deputy Speakers, combined with the Speaker (who used to be a Conservative) cancels out any Government/Opposition imbalance.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  So I make it 638 voting Members, currently, with the threshold for a majority therefore being 320. But also Eleanor Laing, as a Deputy Speaker (technically First Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means) needing to be taken off any count of the (effective) number of Conservative MPs.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  For the time being the number of MPs able to vote is reduced by one more - Fiona Onasanya is unable to vote whilst she is in prison
  
  – stuart10
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  

 | 
show 3 more comments

9

Not yet. Because Sinn Fein hold 7 seats, but they refuse to take their seats in the House of Commons. By tradition, the Speaker of the house doesn't vote.So in practice there are 642 votes in the Commons. That means that 322 votes are needed for a working majority in practice, which the government still has (with the DUP's support).

At the time of writing the seat of Newport West is vacant after the recent death of the MP Paul Flynn (Labour) on 17th Feb 2019; he has been MP for that seat since 1987, so it can be regarded as a reasonably safe Labour seat in the upcoming by-election. This lowers the majority threshold to 321 seats until the vacant seat is filled.

There is no immediate impact if they do fall below that threshold though. The only way it matters is if the government loses a vote of no confidence. It is not certain that the ex -Tory members who have joined The Independent Group would all necessarily vote against the government in a no confidence motion.

share|improve this answer

edited 2 hours ago

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  As of right now there are actually 641 votes - the Speaker of the House of Commons can't normally vote except in a tie-break situation, and the MP for Newport West died four days ago and his seat his current vacant. Even if the Sinn Fein MPs took their seats, you'd currently have an even split, and the Speaker is a former Conservative and so would cast his vote in their favour.
  
  – F1Krazy
  2 hours ago
  
  
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  @F1Krazy Good point about the speaker - I'll edit that in
  
  – PhillS
  2 hours ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  If we’re accounting for the Speaker, we need also to count the Deputy Speakers (one Conservative, two Labour) who also don’t vote. And no, it’s not a coincidence that the party makeup of the Deputy Speakers, combined with the Speaker (who used to be a Conservative) cancels out any Government/Opposition imbalance.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  So I make it 638 voting Members, currently, with the threshold for a majority therefore being 320. But also Eleanor Laing, as a Deputy Speaker (technically First Deputy Chairman of Ways and Means) needing to be taken off any count of the (effective) number of Conservative MPs.
  
  – owjburnham
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  


• 
  
  
  

  
  2
  

  
  
  
  
  
  

  
  
  For the time being the number of MPs able to vote is reduced by one more - Fiona Onasanya is unable to vote whilst she is in prison
  
  – stuart10
  1 hour ago
  

  
  
  
  

 | 
show 3 more comments

Not yet. Because Sinn Fein hold 7 seats, but they refuse to take their seats in the House of Commons. By tradition, the Speaker of the house doesn't vote.So in practice there are 642 votes in the Commons. That means that 322 votes are needed for a working majority in practice, which the government still has (with the DUP's support).

At the time of writing the seat of Newport West is vacant after the recent death of the MP Paul Flynn (Labour) on 17th Feb 2019; he has been MP for that seat since 1987, so it can be regarded as a reasonably safe Labour seat in the upcoming by-election. This lowers the majority threshold to 321 seats until the vacant seat is filled.

There is no immediate impact if they do fall below that threshold though. The only way it matters is if the government loses a vote of no confidence. It is not certain that the ex -Tory members who have joined The Independent Group would all necessarily vote against the government in a no confidence motion.

share|improve this answer

edited 2 hours ago

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

share|improve this answer

edited 2 hours ago

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

answered 3 hours ago

PhillSPhillS

3,1252720

0

At the time of writing, the state of the parties (alt source)as it affects this calculation is:

• Conservative: 314


• DUP: 10


• Labour: 247


• Sinn Fein: 7


• The Speaker: 1


• Vacant: 1


• Everyone else: 70


• TOTAL: 650

However, the 3 Deputy Speakers - of whom 1 is Conservative and 2 are Labour - don't vote. Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so are also unable to vote. With the speaker and one vacancy, this reduces the number of voting MPs to 638.

This makes the number of votes required for a majority to be half of this plus one, i.e. 320.

The Government are in a confidence & supply agreement with the DUP, so in the event of another confidence vote, the number of Government votes available is 314 (Con MPs) - 1 (Deputy Speaker) + 10 (DUP MPs) = 323.

The number of Opposition votes available is 247 (Lab MPs) - 2 (Deputy Speakers) + 70 (everyone else, apart from Sinn Fein) = 315.

Hence the Government, in theory, have a majority of 8.

However, for non-confidence & supply votes, these numbers change to 313 and 325, leaving the Government short by 12 votes. And indeed, they have lost a number of votes recently - not merely because of these numbers, but also because, on Brexit issues, a number of Conservative MPs have not voted with the Government.

share|improve this answer

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

add a comment | 

0

At the time of writing, the state of the parties (alt source)as it affects this calculation is:

• Conservative: 314


• DUP: 10


• Labour: 247


• Sinn Fein: 7


• The Speaker: 1


• Vacant: 1


• Everyone else: 70


• TOTAL: 650

However, the 3 Deputy Speakers - of whom 1 is Conservative and 2 are Labour - don't vote. Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so are also unable to vote. With the speaker and one vacancy, this reduces the number of voting MPs to 638.

This makes the number of votes required for a majority to be half of this plus one, i.e. 320.

The Government are in a confidence & supply agreement with the DUP, so in the event of another confidence vote, the number of Government votes available is 314 (Con MPs) - 1 (Deputy Speaker) + 10 (DUP MPs) = 323.

The number of Opposition votes available is 247 (Lab MPs) - 2 (Deputy Speakers) + 70 (everyone else, apart from Sinn Fein) = 315.

Hence the Government, in theory, have a majority of 8.

However, for non-confidence & supply votes, these numbers change to 313 and 325, leaving the Government short by 12 votes. And indeed, they have lost a number of votes recently - not merely because of these numbers, but also because, on Brexit issues, a number of Conservative MPs have not voted with the Government.

share|improve this answer

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

add a comment | 

At the time of writing, the state of the parties (alt source)as it affects this calculation is:

• Conservative: 314


• DUP: 10


• Labour: 247


• Sinn Fein: 7


• The Speaker: 1


• Vacant: 1


• Everyone else: 70


• TOTAL: 650

However, the 3 Deputy Speakers - of whom 1 is Conservative and 2 are Labour - don't vote. Sinn Fein don't take their seats, so are also unable to vote. With the speaker and one vacancy, this reduces the number of voting MPs to 638.

This makes the number of votes required for a majority to be half of this plus one, i.e. 320.

The Government are in a confidence & supply agreement with the DUP, so in the event of another confidence vote, the number of Government votes available is 314 (Con MPs) - 1 (Deputy Speaker) + 10 (DUP MPs) = 323.

The number of Opposition votes available is 247 (Lab MPs) - 2 (Deputy Speakers) + 70 (everyone else, apart from Sinn Fein) = 315.

Hence the Government, in theory, have a majority of 8.

However, for non-confidence & supply votes, these numbers change to 313 and 325, leaving the Government short by 12 votes. And indeed, they have lost a number of votes recently - not merely because of these numbers, but also because, on Brexit issues, a number of Conservative MPs have not voted with the Government.

share|improve this answer

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

share|improve this answer

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836

answered 16 mins ago

Steve MelnikoffSteve Melnikoff

4,01711836